Texas Holdem Odds Explained
Once the flop has been dealt in Texas Hold'em, you'll be able to count your outs and know how likely it is your hand will improve. That will tell you whether you should stay in the hand or fold.
You can figure out your outs and odds for any hand, but here is a quick and dirty list of the most common scenarios:
- Texas Holdem Odds Explained Against
- Texas Holdem Odds Explained Payouts
- Texas Holdem Odds Explained Odds
Texas Hold'em Cheat SheetOdds Based on Outs after the Flop
If after the flop, you have:
Two outs: Your odds are 11 to 1 (about 8.5 percent)
A common scenario would be when you have a pair and you are hoping your pair becomes a three-of-a-kind (a set).
Four outs: Your odds are 5 to 1 (about 16.5 percent)
A common scenario would be when you are trying to hit an inside straight draw (there are 4 cards of one number that will complete the straight) or you have two pairs and you hope to make a full house (there are three cards remaining of one number and two of the other).
Eight outs: Your odds are 2 to 1 (about 31 percent)
A common scenario would be that you have an open-ended straight draw. There are four remaining cards of two different numbers that will complete your straight, on the high end and on the low end.
Nine outs: Your odds are 2 to 1 (about 35 percent)
This is the common scenario when you have a flush draw. Any of the nine remaining cards of the suit will give you a flush.
Using The 'Outs' To Calculate Texas Hold'em Poker Odds We have already determined that you have nine 'outs'. Now there are 52 cards in a deck and two of those are in your hand, leaving 50. Being able to calculate pot odds is the most important 'poker math' hold'em players can learn to do. Use pot odds to help with drawing hands, starting hand selection, and even when picking off bluffs.
Therefore, I will explain a simple rule, which will help you a lot with Texas Holdem odds. There is quite an easy way to get the answer very fast and we can call it “the rule of 2 and 4”. If you are on the flop just multiply your outs by 4 and you will get an approximate percentage how likely you are to improve your hand till the river. Part of Texas Hold’em For Dummies Cheat Sheet Playing poker is about playing the odds. The following list gives the odds for outcomes in Texas Hold’em hands. When you realize how heavily the odds are stacked against you, you may want to rethink going all-in before the flop with two suited cards. Know Your Poker Odds. We’ll get you started by showing you 20 examples of the basic Texas Hold’em odds you need to know. To really make a mark on the felt, we’re also going to show you a nifty little trick for calculating poker odds right at the table.
Texas Holdem Odds Explained Against
Fifteen outs: Your odds are 1 to 1 (about 54 percent)
A scenario for this is having a straight and flush draw, where either any of the nine remaining cards of the suit will give you a flush, while there are four cards remaining of each of two numbers that would complete a straight. However, you don't count the same cards twice as outs, so those of suit you hope to get don't count again.
The Rule of Four and Two
These odds only apply to counting both the turn and the river, so they assume you will stay in the hand until the showdown. Your odds are only about half as good for a single card draw, such taking the hit on the turn or taking the hit on the river. A common way of looking at the difference in the odds when you will be seeing two cards compared with one is called the Rule of 4 and 2.
After the flop, count your outs and multiply them by four to get your percentage odds. This doesn't give you an exact number, but it is quickly in the ballpark. With 15 outs, 4 x 15 = 55 percent you'll complete that straight or flush with the next two draws.
However, when you are calculating the odds that a single draw will improve your hand, you multiply the outs by two rather than 4. With 15 outs, 2 x 15 = 30 percent chance.
Texas Holdem Odds Explained Payouts
One of the first and most important examples of 'poker math' that new no-limit hold'em players need to learn is how to calculate 'pot odds.' In fact, when people talk about the 'math of poker,' a lot of the time they are mostly referring to pot odds and how an understanding of them can help you decide whether to bet, raise, call, or fold.
Put most simply, pot odds represents the ratio between what you stand to gain in a hand of poker and what you have to spend in order to get it — that is, the ratio between your reward and your risk when making any given decision during a poker hand.
Calculating Pot Odds
For example, if there is $80 in the pot and your opponent bets $20, that makes a total of $100 in the middle. That $100 is the reward you can get if you're willing to risk $20 to call the bet. Pot odds are expressed as a ratio (reward-to-risk). In this case you're having to risk $20 to win $100, so your pot odds are 100-to-20, or 5-to-1.
That's the scenario poker players most often describe when talking about pot odds — that is, when facing a bet and deciding whether or not to call or fold. You add the amount of the bet to what is already in the pot to calculate the reward, the bet you need to call represents the risk, and the pot odds 'being given' to call is that reward-to-risk ratio.
Of course, you can also talk about pot odds after a player raises. Say you decide not just to call that $20 bet described above, but to raise to $80. That would mean your opponent has to call $60 to have a chance at winning what is now $180 in the middle — 180-to-60 or 3-to-1 pot odds.
That might seem simple enough — a little bit of addition and an easy division problem, and you can calculate pot odds.
But why bother? There are lots of reasons.
One big reason why you want to stay generally aware of what your pot odds are — which means keeping track of how big the pot is at all times and being able to compare the pot size to each bet — is that doing so helps you estimate whether or not the pot odds being offered to you are favorable or unfavorable given the situation.
Let's look at three common circumstances in no-limit hold'em in which pot odds can be helpful when making decisions.
Using Pot Odds When Playing a Drawing Hand
Say you are on a flush draw and have with the board showing . There is $120 in the pot, and your opponent has bet $60. You could call to see the river card, but are the pot odds favorable enough for you to make the call?
It's easy enough to see that the reward is $180 ($120 in the pot plus the $60 bet), and so with a $60 risk you are getting 180-to-60 or 3-to-1 pot odds. Is that good or bad?
You believe you probably have to make a flush in order to make a better hand than your opponent's, so that means you have nine outs — the nine remaining clubs — to make your hand. You can see six cards (the two in your hand plus the four on the board), leaving 46 unknown cards, so you can estimate your chance of seeing a club fall on the river to be 9 out of 46, or just over 4-to-1 against.
Texas Holdem Odds Explained Odds
Compare your pot odds (3-to-1 to call) to the odds you'll make your flush (a little worse than 4-to-1 against). It's clear that calling isn't such a good choice — that the pot odds aren't favorable for calling — because over the long term calling is not a profitable play.
Let's say you were to make this call 100 times. About 20 times you'd make your flush on the river (actually a little less, but we'll round it up). You'd be risking $60 x 100 or $6,000. But your reward would only be $180 x 20 or $3,600. After making this call 100 times and winning only 20 hands, you'd have lost $2,400! (Note: we aren't considering what extra money might be won or lost after the river card, but just the profitability of this particular turn call.)
Pot odds are favorable when they are greater than the odds against making your hand. If the pot odds were 5-to-1 here, it would be a good call with it being just over 4-to-1 against making the flush. But 3-to-1 pot odds are unfavorable when drawing one card to make a flush.
Using Pot Odds to Decide Whether to Call a Preflop Raise
Pot odds can also be compared not just to a specific probability (like drawing to a flush), but also to a more general estimate of your chances in a hand.
Say for example you're playing $1/$2 no-limit hold'em and get dealt in the big blind. A player raises to $7 from the button and it folds to you.
First off... what are your pot odds here? There is $10 in the middle (the $1 small blind + the $2 big blind + the $7 raise), and you have to call $5 to stay in the hand. That's 2-to-1 pot odds.
Now, think about the prospect of playing out of position. It's a hand without a lot of potential that is almost certainly worse than whatever the player on the button who raised has. Unless you flop a couple of diamonds or perhaps trips or two pair, you're not likely to feel good about going very far with this hand. Are these 2-to-1 odds favorable?
No, they aren't. You could quantify this perhaps, noting how you with two suited cards you flop a flush draw about 11% of the time, you flop two pair about 2% of the time, and you flop trips about 1.3% of the time — that adds up to around 14% good flops, meaning it's worse than 6-to-1 against your seeing a good flop. That's just an estimate, really, but is obviously way worse than the 2-to-1 pot odds, so folding is in order.
What if a player raises to $7 from early position and five other players including the small blind call before the action reaches you in the big blind with your ? Now there's $44 in the middle and you have to pay $5 to see the flop. Those are almost 8-to-1 pot odds, which are in fact greater than the odds against your flopping something good — you might consider calling.
Using Pot Odds to Decide Whether to Call a Suspected Bluff
Pot odds can also be relevant when deciding whether or not to call what you think might be an opponent's bluff.
You've reached the river with your and the board shows . Your opponent raised before the flop and you called, and you called his bets on both the flop and turn. Now there's $100 in the middle and he's betting $50, giving you 3-to-1 pot odds to call.
You suspect strongly he could be bluffing, but you think it's possible he might have something like aces, kings, jacks, ace-queen, or king-queen and have you beat. While it's not feasible to calculate exactly the likelihood he's bluffing, you might be able to make a rough estimate — say, that he's probably bluffing at least a third of the time here.
That would make it 2-to-1 against your tens being best, making 3-to-1 pot odds favorable for you — a profitable call to make.
Conclusion
There are many other applications of pot odds in no-limit hold'em, but you can't take advantage of them until you start to become comfortable figuring out pot odds as a hand is playing out.
This is often easier to do when playing online poker, where the betting amounts and pot sizes are shown as numbers. But even when playing live, you can with practice become increasingly at ease keeping track of what's in the pot and calculating pot odds until it becomes second nature to you.
And once you do, you can then use pot odds to help direct your decision-making in a variety of contexts.
Also in this series...
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